{
  "capturedUTC": "2026-10-31T04:45:51.489567+00:00",
  "status": "Primary market, historical ancillary, identified public account comment, official bulletin, and UMA verdict verified. No proposer rationale or subjective intent established.",
  "quotePolicy": {
    "rule": "All narrative findings below paraphrase. Full descriptions, posts, bulletin text, comments, and source code remain raw/local only. Do not package raw files by default.",
    "narrativeVerbatimQuotesPublished": 0,
    "marketQuestionTitleRetained": true
  },
  "market": {
    "question": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?",
    "marketId": "2646848",
    "eventId": "624218",
    "seriesId": "11145",
    "conditionId": "0x545e1bf6ec42e0e8a776a3c3e11ed225f8d3dfcc74f98656e142f99a2b718383",
    "questionId": "0xa3424d549babb0fbaa3c426669aefb9ed46d9ccd1e9721b424d9d7e547da895c",
    "URL": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-july-3-2026-20260622191708359",
    "GammaURL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/slug/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-july-3-2026-20260622191708359",
    "deadlineUTC": "2026-07-04T03:59:00Z",
    "deadlineLocal": "2026-07-03 23:59:00 America/New_York (EDT, UTC-4)",
    "deadlinePrecision": "The text and API identify 11:59 PM ET, represented as03:59:00Z. Do not substitute04:00:00Z.",
    "proposalSecondsBeforeListedDeadline": 36859,
    "finalGammaOutcomeYesNo": [
      0,
      1
    ],
    "GammaClosedTime": "2026-07-06 02:34:22+00"
  },
  "historicalRules": {
    "originalRequestUTC": "2026-06-23T02:35:55+00:00",
    "requestTimestamp": "1782182155",
    "requestTx": "0x994ccfe4a392a1737ff9eb1c9971301dd37619d1db2c2e2f81ebf36551916b25",
    "proposalTx": "0x191c7fb1280b251efd0d574b57edee7989c22d96ed99d269968d6a10349ce283",
    "ancillarySHA256": "09441c2023c79b4272fbb7e372ae6d3952e767e7349a22c843e590762ed890ec",
    "currentGammaDescriptionExactlyMatchesDescriptionInsideHistoricalProposal": true,
    "ancillaryIncludesMarketId": "2646848",
    "ancillaryIncludesCreatorBulletinInstruction": true,
    "creator": "0xf43d55f3a8b7484ed4b6931f93cb6f9ef5dd369d",
    "bulletinAddress": "0x65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7",
    "paraphrase": [
      "The target is a newly convened official round led by senior US and Iranian representatives, beginning before the listed deadline.",
      "Indirect in-person negotiation can qualify; the parties need not share a room or attend simultaneously.",
      "Later technical or implementation work following Switzerland is insufficient unless included in such a new senior round.",
      "Remote contacts and incidental encounters are excluded.",
      "Relevant governmental information and agreement among credible news reports determine the factual outcome."
    ],
    "boundary": "An early Yes can be valid after an eligible meeting begins. The predeadline proposal time alone does not establish error."
  },
  "publicAccountComment": {
    "comment": {
      "commentId": "3093905",
      "UTC": "2026-06-28T23:00:28.653706Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-06-28T23:00:46.928109Z",
      "authorAddress": "0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82",
      "displayName": "Car",
      "proxyWallet": "0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b",
      "parentEntityType": "Series",
      "parentEntityID": 11145,
      "parentCommentID": null,
      "paraphrase": "Car warned that the forthcoming Tuesday technical discussions would be excluded under the market rules.",
      "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3093905",
      "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
    },
    "officialCarProfileURL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-profile?address=0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b",
    "officialUserID": "501613",
    "officialXUsername": "CarOnPolymarket",
    "commentProfileBaseAddress": "0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82",
    "commentProfileProxyWallet": "0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b",
    "binding": "Exact base and proxy addresses bind the comment to the existing Car account; display name alone was not used. Series11145 is explicitly attached to event624218; target market2646848 is attached to that event. Historical ancillary names the target market and embeds the same rules.",
    "limit": "The June28 warning proves Car publicly discussed the technical-talk exclusion. No July3 Car/proposer explanation or acknowledgment of the later bulletin was recovered. It does not by itself prove the factual basis or intent of a later trade/proposal."
  },
  "officialClarifications": [
    {
      "UTC": "2026-07-03T21:52:28+00:00",
      "tx": "0xe7d39614d6e617c7fc26a41395233aec89f9a03f20599f552b57bb92a2247617",
      "URL": "https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xe7d39614d6e617c7fc26a41395233aec89f9a03f20599f552b57bb92a2247617",
      "block": 89607035,
      "questionId": "0xa3424d549babb0fbaa3c426669aefb9ed46d9ccd1e9721b424d9d7e547da895c",
      "creator": "0xf43d55f3a8b7484ed4b6931f93cb6f9ef5dd369d",
      "receiptStatus": 1,
      "paraphrase": "The platform announced that any clarification would arrive at19:30ET and that the order book would be cleared then regardless of whether it issued one."
    },
    {
      "UTC": "2026-07-03T23:30:32+00:00",
      "tx": "0x73712f8cea4261ae6e40d66084af92435f5243ea1c4c01af27a69d15c54fb0d8",
      "URL": "https://polygonscan.com/tx/0x73712f8cea4261ae6e40d66084af92435f5243ea1c4c01af27a69d15c54fb0d8",
      "block": 89610958,
      "questionId": "0xa3424d549babb0fbaa3c426669aefb9ed46d9ccd1e9721b424d9d7e547da895c",
      "creator": "0xf43d55f3a8b7484ed4b6931f93cb6f9ef5dd369d",
      "receiptStatus": 1,
      "paraphrase": "At19:30ET the creator found insufficient official US/Iran information or media agreement to classify the separate Qatar meetings with the senior envoys as an eligible indirect process; the accompanying technical discussions lacked senior representatives from both countries.",
      "timeBoundary": "This was issued5h45m51s after the17:44:41UTC proposal and after all three selected postproposal sales. Do not attribute advance knowledge of this bulletin."
    }
  ],
  "umaVerdict": {
    "oracleAPIURL": "https://oracle.uma.xyz/api/resolve-deeplink?transactionHash=0x191c7fb1280b251efd0d574b57edee7989c22d96ed99d269968d6a10349ce283&eventIndex=1365&chainId=137&oracleType=ManagedOptimisticOracleV2",
    "voterAPIURL": "https://vote.uma.xyz/api/resolve-deeplink?identifier=YES_OR_NO_QUERY&time=1783100681&ancillaryDataHash=0xa3424d549babb0fbaa3c426669aefb9ed46d9ccd1e9721b424d9d7e547da895c",
    "voterURL": "https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes?vote=YES_OR_NO_QUERY-1783100681-0xf2c45e1937d2c7277b5262ebfa592e97e8941b5446041b97fadd546bd9e396d5",
    "voterUniqueKey": "YES_OR_NO_QUERY-1783100681-0xf2c45e1937d2c7277b5262ebfa592e97e8941b5446041b97fadd546bd9e396d5",
    "resolvedPriceRequestIndex": "3762",
    "eventBased": true,
    "effectiveProposalTime": 1783100681,
    "requestCreationTimestampIsNotEffectiveEvaluationTime": true,
    "oracleState": "Settled",
    "resolvedPrice": "-57896044618658097711785492504343953926634992332820282019728792003956564819968",
    "label": "Too Early",
    "settlementUTC": "2026-07-06T00:30:56+00:00",
    "settlementTx": "0xa44e86e50a4fb65bcb605b30c5231b4b676b88468c6ea7dac068059507355cb7",
    "settlementRecipient": "0xf571581b29f714449cfe798e18a1b734ecc75e38",
    "settlementPayoutRaw": "1000000000",
    "voterChildAncillaryStartsWithExactOriginalRequestAncillary": true,
    "voterStampSuffix": ",ooRequester:65070be91477460d8a7aeeb94ef92fe056c2f2a7,childRequester:2c0367a9db231ddebd88a94b4f6461a6e47c58b1,childChainId:137",
    "reportedVoteWeightByRawAnswer": {
      "-57896044618658097711785492504343953926634992332820282019728792003956564819968": "18213614.475125466",
      "0": "61920.959397228886",
      "500000000000000000": "1137.3471985750166"
    },
    "reportedTooEarlyWeightPercent": "99.65497928781178756255345001",
    "voteWeightLimit": "The official API reports aggregate token weights. Its displayed commit/reveal address lists are capped at100 by the resolver query; do not claim100 total voters or independently verified all reveal receipts.",
    "semantics": "The minimum signed256-bit value is the early-request sentinel. It rejects settlement at that evaluation time. It is distinct from No or an unknown/50-50 result. The later final No market outcome is a separate observation.",
    "discussionAPIURL": "https://vote.uma.xyz/api/discord-thread?identifier=YES_OR_NO_QUERY&time=1783100681&title=US%20x%20Iran%20diplomatic%20meeting%20by%20July%203%2C%202026%3F",
    "discussionRecovery": "HTTP200 returned an empty discussion list; this does not prove no historical discussion existed.",
    "semanticsPrimarySources": [
      {
        "repository": "UMAprotocol/UMIPs",
        "commit": "8f2c7101c3321b9e9365535290c94a44c4506992",
        "readableURL": "https://github.com/UMAprotocol/UMIPs/blob/8f2c7101c3321b9e9365535290c94a44c4506992/UMIPs/umip-107.md",
        "SHA256": "359331eb0d57841454bbc3475ec258e1af2db313cdbf001136a912983c00bd45"
      },
      {
        "repository": "UMAprotocol/protocol",
        "commit": "c8c3f67367afd1c767712a3dbe3c8cad01b9a4d8",
        "readableURL": "https://github.com/UMAprotocol/protocol/blob/c8c3f67367afd1c767712a3dbe3c8cad01b9a4d8/packages/core/contracts/optimistic-oracle-v2/implementation/OptimisticOracleV2.sol",
        "SHA256": "9ec0240cea18958d5a7c24990e1d19a27177b8fc1262d1626cb02fd857df2eaf"
      },
      {
        "repository": "UMAprotocol/optimistic-oracle-dapp-v2",
        "commit": "2a592c1a9207dd0d53f852333f103ecb1b1d902f",
        "readableURL": "https://github.com/UMAprotocol/optimistic-oracle-dapp-v2/blob/2a592c1a9207dd0d53f852333f103ecb1b1d902f/src/constants/earlyRequestMagicNumber.ts",
        "SHA256": "5c3f41abdc5daf2efd66cfeceefe24de65e2d78e279d2acdab399bfeec81e650"
      }
    ]
  },
  "newsAndOfficialContext": [
    {
      "UTC": "2026-06-29T13:00:00+00:00",
      "URL": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnc/date/2026-06-29/segment/05",
      "primaryKind": "CNN broadcast transcript reproducing an official White House spokeswoman video clip",
      "paraphrase": "Leavitt announced senior US envoys would travel for senior meetings, with technical discussions alongside. Iran publicly disputed that new meetings were scheduled.",
      "implication": "The public reporting included a reason to investigate a qualifying senior round. It does not prove one actually occurred or that the proposer relied on this account."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-01",
      "URL": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/us-and-iran-enter-technical-talks-secure-peace-deal-restart-shipping",
      "primaryKind": "Reuters original reporting republished by Al-Monitor",
      "paraphrase": "Reuters reported technical Doha discussions, including negotiation specialists; the two senior US envoys had met the Qatari prime minister to prepare but would not attend the technical sessions.",
      "implication": "Real diplomatic contacts occurred; formal market eligibility remained a separate question."
    },
    {
      "UTC": "2026-07-01T20:43:18+00:00",
      "URL": "https://x.com/majedalansari/status/2072420805309264382",
      "primaryKind": "Official Qatar ministry spokesperson post; first-party X CDN confirms authorID14941669 and time",
      "paraphrase": "The Qatar spokesman confirmed separate mediator meetings with American and Iranian negotiators over the interim memorandum and described progress.",
      "recoveryLimit": "X CDN retains only the initial long-post segment. The end about the next meeting is independently supported by Pakistan official PR160/2026; do not present mirror continuation as first-party recovered."
    },
    {
      "UTC": "2026-07-02T04:05:53+00:00",
      "URL": "https://x.com/ForeignOfficePk/status/2072532186016936142",
      "imageURL": "https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMMdCM4bwAAfGsC.jpg?name=orig",
      "primaryKind": "Pakistan Foreign Office official post, authorID314479335, with visually inspected PR160/2026 image",
      "paraphrase": "Pakistan confirmed mediator meetings about implementing the memorandum and plans to arrange another meeting after the former Iranian leader funeral processions.",
      "recoveryLimit": "The release is datedJuly2 and uses today; Qatar had already described completion onJuly1. Preserve this discrepancy rather than assigning both accounts one exact meeting time."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "URL": "https://mofa.gov.pk/press-releases/transcript-of-the-press-briefing-by-the-spokesperson-on-thursday-02-july-2026?mission=media-briefings",
      "primaryKind": "Pakistan official press-briefing transcript",
      "paraphrase": "The spokesperson confirmed separate indirect meetings, continuing dialogue and a later meeting after the funeral. He declined to disclose the specific negotiated details.",
      "captureLimit": "The container could not validate this website certificate chain; raw was fetched withTLS verification disabled and separately corroborated by the authenticated X-origin release/image. This does not affect blockchain or Gamma captures."
    }
  ],
  "observedDiscussion": {
    "seriesId": "11145",
    "keysetPages": 3,
    "uniqueCapturedComments": 488,
    "observedWindowUTC": [
      "2026-06-27T00:00:00Z",
      "2026-07-07T00:00:00Z"
    ],
    "commentsInWindow": 270,
    "selectedParaphrases": [
      {
        "commentId": "3093905",
        "UTC": "2026-06-28T23:00:28.653706Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-06-28T23:00:46.928109Z",
        "authorAddress": "0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82",
        "displayName": "Car",
        "proxyWallet": "0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": null,
        "paraphrase": "Car warned that the forthcoming Tuesday technical discussions would be excluded under the market rules.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3093905",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3112205",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T17:04:06.677258Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T17:04:17.524752Z",
        "authorAddress": "0x3c8404ae341603c62860e6edc80447954f6994d1",
        "displayName": "Raskell",
        "proxyWallet": "0xb37aa8834f9baefc6fb3312f59df8ddf0348f1b1",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": null,
        "paraphrase": "Raskell asked why Doha would be excluded and referred to reporting of senior and technical discussions.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3112205",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3112227",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T17:12:17.822467Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T17:12:27.855815Z",
        "authorAddress": "0x0a70e7dbe4201a2e5a49e46c11b39d9d6edca784",
        "displayName": "ManipulationOfRisk",
        "proxyWallet": "0xfd47e2f30ac97571e6e68f51bf4531b108af805a",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": "3112205",
        "paraphrase": "ManipulationOfRisk argued that the senior meetings involved Qatar and the United States, with Iran absent.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3112227",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3112230",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T17:13:16.323582Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T17:13:25.830303Z",
        "authorAddress": "0x6609dfa1cb75d74f4ff39c8a5057bd111fba5b22",
        "displayName": "Rex416",
        "proxyWallet": "0x9a3fa403a6666eef75f92f181fcf13f9c051914a",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": null,
        "paraphrase": "Rex416 expressed a personal view that the Doha meetings qualified.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3112230",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3112288",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T17:31:23.691756Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T17:31:31.480876Z",
        "authorAddress": "0xaf5cb6b1f5e9c30aded63e57003bfb1619f546cb",
        "displayName": "lordedward",
        "proxyWallet": "0xb20ac3fbbe4f24a70186f498ebe70e232ffed09d",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": null,
        "paraphrase": "lordedward cited news that the two senior US envoys would not attend the technical sessions and pointed to the rule exclusion.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3112288",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3112514",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T18:34:51.661742Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T18:35:00.235373Z",
        "authorAddress": "0x38f9715251bd7b9962a51b6e56b547fedb11709a",
        "displayName": "tetrose",
        "proxyWallet": "0x74471a007ddcc488f6d57b5e86dfb35a8d48a16d",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": null,
        "paraphrase": "tetrose anticipated a platform clarification; the comment itself did not establish that one had been authorized.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3112514",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3113045",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T20:28:33.694098Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T20:28:42.400006Z",
        "authorAddress": "0x20f8d8b0147d5ab7480ffa8c10f6acf511837bcd",
        "displayName": "0xd677672c3995D47918D8Ec013aBCA5138841a495-1767614121842",
        "proxyWallet": "0xd677672c3995d47918d8ec013abca5138841a495",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": "3112949",
        "paraphrase": "A participant claimed the platform had already clarified the question; this preceded the authoritative bulletin and cannot date it.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3113045",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3113737",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T23:21:10.803368Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T23:21:19.716934Z",
        "authorAddress": "0x47767120d0f2510fe07bb0a4a19068e51ba5927d",
        "displayName": "ScottyNooo",
        "proxyWallet": "0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": "3113228",
        "paraphrase": "ScottyNooo challenged the idea of proposing No before the outcome could be determined.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3113737",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      },
      {
        "commentId": "3113829",
        "UTC": "2026-07-03T23:31:12.650023Z",
        "updatedAt": "2026-07-03T23:31:20.404784Z",
        "authorAddress": "0xd86dc1b46efd56ffe9e99b217a69906f24da85e6",
        "displayName": "Levi567",
        "proxyWallet": "0x2b626da4168d010dbd6c937a805227deaf9d5203",
        "parentEntityType": "Series",
        "parentEntityID": 11145,
        "parentCommentID": null,
        "paraphrase": "Levi567 reacted favorably to a clarification, shortly after the authoritative bulletin.",
        "URL": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments/3113829",
        "status": "The comment establishes only what its identified speaker said; allegations and predictions are not independent findings."
      }
    ],
    "metadataFile": "PUBLIC-COMMENT-METADATA.json",
    "directKnownProposerCommentsEndpointResult": [],
    "knownProposerProfileEndpointHTTP": 404,
    "limits": [
      "Root comments and replies are mixed in keyset responses; pages are deduplicated by immutableID.",
      "The correctly paginated capture spansJune21 throughOctober29, with270comments in the bounded window; it is not a universal historical archive.",
      "No comment in the window is authored by the known3e837 proposer address; no publichuman association is inferred for different commentators.",
      "Community allegations about collusion, alternate accounts or price effects are retained in raw evidence but are not adopted as findings.",
      "The apparently relevant July2 Car Yes comment3105649 belongs to series11816, which concerns country recognition of Israel; it is excluded from this meeting case."
    ]
  },
  "unproved": [
    "The known proposer human identity or exclusive control by Car.",
    "The original proposer explanation or subjective belief about Doha eligibility.",
    "Knowledge of the23:30 platform clarification at17:44 proposal or17:55\u201318:10 sales.",
    "A false Car factual statement about the qualifying meeting, or an undertaking to retain these shares.",
    "Price causality, a coordinated plan, the ownership of other speaker accounts, or a legal violation.",
    "No claim that the absence of recovered X posts or the empty current discussion cache proves there were none."
  ],
  "reproduction": "verify_context_offline.py validates retained bytes, historical rule equality, exact account and series binding, both official bulletin log/transaction/receipt bindings, and matching oracle/voter early-request values. It does not replace independent node or chain-consensus verification."
}