The proposal.
The sales.
The full account.

The market asked whether a new formal senior round of US–Iran peace talks would begin by July 3, 11:59pm ET: July 4 03:59 UTC. Indirect in-person diplomacy could qualify. Follow-on technical or implementation meetings required a new senior round. The historical proposal embeds the same description now returned by the official market API. Rules and exact market binding ↗

On June 28 at 23:00:28, Car warned that Tuesday’s technical discussions would be excluded. His exact account addresses bind the comment to this meeting series. The following morning, a recorded White House spokeswoman statement announced senior Doha meetings, with technical discussions alongside. Reuters subsequently reported technical talks and said the senior US envoys would not attend those sessions. Real contacts occurred; market eligibility required a further judgment.

At 17:44:41 on July 3, proposer 3e837 submitted Yes while Car held 2,577.677250 YES. Car had previously funded this wallet on April 22 ↗. That financial relationship does not establish who controlled the proposer or why it acted. An early Yes could be valid if a qualifying meeting had already begun.

An outside wallet disputed at 17:50:29. Three Car-authorized sale orders then settled as shown below. Proposal ↗ · Dispute ↗ · Actual Car order signatures ↗

The sales total 2,577.670000 YES for 902.170820 pUSD. The checked counterparty orders have no exact match to the retained 112-address Car inventory. One sale contains a signed 17:27 timestamp; that field does not independently establish when the order was created. Counterparties and signed timestamps ↗

The seven highlighted trades produce +461.722780 pUSD cash and consume 0.010000 YES from earlier inventory. They are not a zero-opening round trip. The complete condition activity through block 89740000, July 6 05:16:35 UTC contains 98 financial transactions: 95 trade transactions containing 96 signed orders, plus 3 merge transactions. Trading cash totals −10,229.295958 pUSD; merges return 7,121.216600 pUSD; net cash is −3,108.079358 pUSD. Bounded condition reconciliation ↗

The closing balance retains 0.007250 YES and 0.012546 NO. The NO payout is redeemable, not cash observed received. Eight currently disclosed profiles were checked at three historical blocks spanning the proposal and sales; only Car held this condition. That comparison does not establish historical ownership or cover unseen accounts. Eight-profile position checkpoints ↗

At 23:30:32 on July 3, after all three sales, the official creator clarification ↗ found insufficient official information or media agreement to qualify the separate Doha senior-envoy meetings; the accompanying technical sessions lacked senior representatives from both countries. This later bulletin cannot establish Car’s advance knowledge.

UMA’s formal vote returned the minimum signed 256-bit value, the Too Early sentinel. The original request settled at July 6 00:30:56. The condition separately resolved No at 02:34:22. Request settlement ↗ · Final condition payout ↗

The proposer deposited 750 USDC.e: 500 bond plus 250 fee. The disputer also deposited 750. The original-request cash records show 500 reaching UMA’s Store and 1,000 paid to the successful disputer; the proposer received no return in those receipts. These are separate wallets’ cash flows. Adapted oracle financial records ↗

The proposer’s explanation, exclusive control, intent and any price effect remain unproved. Minute price points show movement before and after the proposal and cannot isolate its cause. Minute price series ↗ Source provenance ↗ · Dated discussion speakers ↗

All 383 executed counterparty order appearances across the 95 trade transactions now have recovered authorizing keys, including 51 nested contract-wallet signatures. None matches the retained attacker targets or the classified comparison inputs. The cash account above is unchanged.

Open the complete signature comparison ↗

Arrows show the labeled transfers. Rows order the events by time. A sequence does not establish a shared controller or a causal price effect.